DON'T TAX AWAY
AUSTRALIA'S ENERGY SECURITY

A 25% tax on gas exports might sound like a good way to raise revenue. But in reality, it could mean less gas, higher costs and more uncertainty.

AUSTRALIA IS
HEADING TOWARDS
A GAS SHORTFALL.

Here's the part most people aren't hearing.

Australia's energy market operator (AEMO) warns that gas supply is set to fall sharply in the years ahead.

Production in southern states could drop by half within five years.
Shortfalls are expected across both the east and west Coasts.
That's the equivalent of gas used in around 500,000 homes.*

At the same time, demand isn't disappearing.

So the question is simple: Where will the gas come from?

*AEMO, Gas Statement of Opportunities.

To avoid shortages, Australia needs new gas projects.

But these projects don't happen overnight.

They require:

Billions of dollars in upfront investment.
Years of planning and construction.
Long-term confidence from global investors.

Since 2010, more than $400 billion has been invested in LNG projects in Australia.*

That investment only happens when the rules are stable and predictable.

*Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

NEW SUPPLY
DEPENDS ON
OVERSEAS
INVESTMENT.

WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN THE
RULES CHANGE.

This is where the proposed tax comes in.

A sudden 25% export tax doesn't just reduce profits - it changes whether projects go ahead.

And when projects don't go ahead, supply doesn't grow.

We've seen this play out before.

In the UK, a windfall tax on energy companies led to: cancelled projects, failing investment and reduced exploration.

One major company cut its investment plans by around 70%.*

*UK Office for Budget Responsibility, company disclosures.

Some argue Australia should follow Norway's model, which has higher taxes.

But Norway's system works very differently.

There the government:

Owns large stakes in energy projects.
Shares the risk and costs.
Even refunds losses to companies in early stages.

Australia doesn't do that.

Here, projects are funded by private investment - and that investment depends on getting the settings right.

*Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Business Council of Australia

WHY COMPARISONS
WITH NORWAY
DON'T STACK UP.

$21.9 Bn in taxes & royalties paid last year alone

¹ATO Statistics
²Australian Energy Producers 2024-25 Financial Survey, June 2025
³Commonwealth Treasury, Budget 2025-26, Budget Paper 1, p.120

This debate isn't about tax, or whether Australia's gas industry pays its way - the Australian Tax Office data confirms the industry is already the nation's second biggest taxpayer.

This debate is about:

Keeping energy reliable.
Keeping prices under control.
Supporting jobs and regional communities.
Maintaining relationships with key partners like Japan and Korea.

DON'T TAX AWAY AUSTRALIA'S ENERGY SECURITY

A 25% tax on gas exports might sound like a good way to raise revenue. But in reality, it could mean less gas, higher costs and more uncertainty.

AUSTRALIA IS HEADING TOWARDS A GAS SHORTFALL.

Here's the part most people aren't hearing. Australia's energy market operator (AEMO) warns that gas supply is set to fall sharply in the years ahead.

Production in southern states could drop by half within five years.

Shortfalls are expected across both the east and west Coasts.

That's the equivalent of gas used in around 500,000 homes.*

​At the same time, demand isn't disappearing. So the question is simple: Where will the gas come from?

*AEMO, Gas Statement of Opportunities.

To avoid shortages, Australia needs new gas projects. But these projects don't happen overnight. They require:

Billions of dollars in upfront investment.

Years of planning and construction.

Long-term confidence from global investors.

Since 2010, more than $400 billion has been invested in LNG projects in Australia.* That investment only happens when the rules are stable and predictable.

*Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

NEW SUPPLY DEPENDS ON OVERSEAS INVESTMENT.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE RULES CHANGE.

*UK Office for Budget Responsibility, company disclosures.

Some argue Australia should follow Norway's model, which has higher taxes. But Norway's system works very differently. There the government:

Owns large stakes in energy projects.

Shares the risk and costs.

Even refunds losses to companies in early stages.

Australia doesn't do that. Here, projects are funded by private investment - and that investment depends on getting the settings right.

*Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Business Council of Australia

WHY COMPARISONS WITH NORWAY DON'T STACK UP.

¹ATO Statistics ²Australian Energy Producers 2024-25 Financial Survey, June 2025 ³Commonwealth Treasury, Budget 2025-26, Budget Paper 1, p.120

This debate isn't about tax, or whether Australia's gas industry pays its way - the Australian Tax Office data confirms the industry is already the nation's second biggest taxpayer. This debate is about:

Keeping energy reliable.

Keeping prices under control.

Supporting jobs and regional communities.

Maintaining relationships with key partners like Japan and Korea.

Because once investment leaves, it doesn't come back quickly. And once gas supply drops, the consequences are felt everywhere.​ ​

DON'T TAX AWAY
AUSTRALIA'S ENERGY SECURITY

AUSTRALIA IS
HEADING TOWARDS
A GAS SHORTFALL.

Here's the part most people aren't hearing.

Australia's energy market operator (AEMO) warns that gas supply is set to fall sharply in the years ahead.

At the same time, demand isn't disappearing.

So the question is simple: Where will the gas come from?

To avoid shortages, Australia needs new gas projects.

But these projects don't happen overnight.

They require:

Since 2010, more than $400 billion has been invested in LNG projects in Australia.*

That investment only happens when the rules are stable and predictable.

NEW SUPPLY
DEPENDS ON
OVERSEAS
INVESTMENT.

WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN THE
RULES CHANGE.

Some argue Australia should follow Norway's model, which has higher taxes.

But Norway's system works very differently.

There the government:

Australia doesn't do that.

Here, projects are funded by private investment - and that investment depends on getting the settings right.

WHY COMPARISONS
WITH NORWAY
DON'T STACK UP.

¹ATO Statistics
²Australian Energy Producers 2024-25 Financial Survey, June 2025
³Commonwealth Treasury, Budget 2025-26, Budget Paper 1, p.120

This debate isn't about tax, or whether Australia's gas industry pays its way - the Australian Tax Office data confirms the industry is already the nation's second biggest taxpayer.

This debate is about:

Because once investment leaves, it doesn't come back quickly.

And once gas supply drops, the consequences are felt everywhere.